Friday, February 12, 2010

A Star Among Us

David Lee Added to All-Star Roster

Not since 2001, when Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston participated in one of the better midwinter classics in recent years - a game that featured once and future Knickerbockers Anthony Mason, Stephon Marbury and Antonio McDyess - has a player from the Garden graced the NBA All-Star Game.

Until Sunday, when Knicks center David Lee will tread the boards for the Eastern Conference.

To keep with the '01 meme, a roster spot opened up for Lee because 2001 All-Star Game MVP Allen Iverson pulled out for family reasons. The last time Lee participated in a game during the All-Star break went 14 for 14 from the field and took home the MVP Award during the 2007 Rookies vs. Sophomores Game. While I don't think that he'll have that sort of result against the game's best this weekend, I do think he deserves to be there. Over Atlanta forward Josh Smith, the other contender for the opening.

Bonus All-Star Game Photo

Monday, February 8, 2010

Who Dat Say Gonna Beat Dem Saints?

Let Sean Payton get an extra slice of King Cake today. Let Drew Brees receive complimentary plastic surgery on his mole scar for the rest of his days. And assure me that Gregg Williams will be entrusted with Lil Wayne's share of beads come Fat Tuesday. For the New Orleans Saints are the victors in the 44th Super Bowl.

Who dat? Who dat? Who dat say gonna beat dem Saints? Who dat? Who dat? Nobody. Not Peyton. He didn't say nothin'. Not after his Pick-6 to Tracey Porter sealed the game with more than three minutes to play. All that you could hear in Miami was the roar of the increasingly pro-Saints crowd.

There is no question that the call of the game was Saints coach Sean Payton's decision to try an onside kick to open the second half. Trailing, 10-6, Payton knew that long clock-killing drive by Manning and the Colts could snuff out his team's comeback hopes. So, he got aggressive. He tried to change the momentum. And made a risk-reward call that could get his team back in control of the game. And Morstead's kick was perfect. It deflected off a Colts player and was corralled by the Saints. Cue the horns.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

2nd Annual WWOD? Super Bowl Prop Bet Blowout

After weeks of preseason quasi-football - which was preceded by months of he-said, he-said featuring everyone's favorite denim pitchman - and seventeen weeks of regular season contests - which preceded three rounds of playoff tilts- we are here. It's Super Sunday, which precedes Hungover Monday.

Three parts television spectacle, one part hot sauce bender, three parts fete for Madison Avenue ad men, two parts football game, and one part occassion for drunk driving. Combine in chilled punch bowl. Ad dash of gambling to taste. Whisk. Serve over ice in commemorative plastic cups obtained with four Tostitos proofs purchase and a self-addressed stamped envelope. It's the Super Bowl. Where do I sit?

Excuse me, miss, is there any room in the Falcons helmet?

After knocking of Rex Ryan's ambitious New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game with a ruthlessly efficient second-half performance, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are deemed the safe bet in this game. Peyton's been garnering GOAT talk all week long, deservedly. And, how do you bet against the best? Indy hasn't lost a game that Peyton played straight through all year long. Perhaps the recency bias of the gambling public explains why the Colts were favored by 6 shortly after they were installed as 3.5-point favorites by the Vegas oddsmakers over the NFC representative. The Indy money came in quick. The line has since regressed as the Saints backers felt that +5 or 6 points was a good value. Just a few hours before kickoff, the Colts are laying 4.5 to the Saints.

Perhaps the reason that the Colts got so much love early in the week was Peyton's T1000-like dominance against the Jets. Or it might have been the New Orleans Saints' struggles against the turnover-prone Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Despite their own dominant season and an undefeated run of their own, the Saints are firmly entrenched in the underdog role, perhaps in spite of the numbers they put up this season. Perhaps it's also because that status fits the narrative of post-Katrina New Orleans. Perhaps it's just because they're not as good.

Regardless of the movement, I think that the oddsmakers set a good line. It's got me confused. Which is how I judge such things. If I can't figure it out then it must be good. Right?

In the last two years, I have loved the Cardinals and the Giants with the points. This year? I'm not sure. I can't imagine a team stopping Peyton for four quarters. But, I'm not sold that the Colts' defense can keep Drew Brees and company from making this a shootout. I might tease the Colts and the UNDER in case the game goes like former Colts coach and current NBC analyst Tony Dungy thinks it will. I might also put a little bit of cash down on the Saints and the money line. Or tease the Saints +4.5 and the OVER and bet the Colts money line. Or I might just take my money and award it to passersby as I make my way to the Super Bowl party I'm heading to. I'm not sure. All seem equally viable options.

WWOD?'s Prop Bet Picks:

Austin Collie OVER 50.5 yards
I think that this might be my best feel (you could also translate this logic to the OVER on Garcon if you want, too) of the game. Saints corner Jabari Greer is a middle-class man's Darrelle Revis and should be able to take Reggie Wayne away from Manning just like Revis did. I'd go OVER on Collie's receptions as well. That line is set at an easy to top 3.5.

Reggue Wayne for UNDER 79.5 total recieving yards
Betting public, meet Mr. Greer. Mr. Greer, meet the betting public. I'd also take most of the UNDER bets on Wayne with the exception of longest reception. There's always the chance that he'll break one and I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket even though I think he gets shut down over the balance of the game.

Total number of players to have a pass attempt: OVER.
I've had good luck with this bet whenever I've made. And, Iike most streaks. It's got to end somewhere. But I think that the Saints offensive mastermind Sean Payton might see make sure that day isn't today. Does Reggie Bush throw a pass today? I think there's a chance.

The Saints WILL CONVERT A FOURTH DOWN ATTEMPT:
If they're going to be trailing, which seems to be the conventional wisdom then they will go for it on fourth at some point as they try to rally and they will convert.

Carrie Underwood will go OVER 1 minute and 42 seconds while singing the national anthem:
This gal wants to show of those pipes to prove that she's more than a genre act.

Drew Brees' longest completion will be OVER 40.5 yards:
The Saints are going to be looking for big plays and they'll connect on one at some point. I'm actually surprised this 10 yards less than the longest completion of game prop, which is around 50 yards. I mean, the Saints are the home run offense whereas the Colts really want to grind your bones and make their bread with long drives.

Other than these bets, I do really like the OVER on the longest rush props for Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. All the numbers are around 10-11 yards. All someone has to do is run for a first down and you're a winner.

Thursday, February 4, 2010

RejuveN8tion

Eureka! Could this be it? Has productivity (or lack thereof) triumphed over pride? Is Chris Duhon's reign of error finally over? With the Knicks playing uninspired ball and trailing the woeful Washington Wizards by a few buckets at the half last night, coach D'Antoni made a change. A long-awaited change. Like the sort of change that has been put off and avoided. Like me and changing the sheets on my bed. D'Antoni sent out Nate Robinson with four members of the starting lineup to open the second half. And after a slow start to the third quarter, the N8-led unit came alive and won this game going away. Duhon didn't play a single minute in the second half. Nate played every minute, Larry Hughes got some solid run, and the team hasn't looked better in weeks. There was urgency to the attack and intensity on defense. Risks were taken. And rewarded.

The Knicks managed just 41 points in the first two quarters, during which time Duhon went 1 for 6 from the field (which makes him 14 for 65 in his last 12 games) while assisting on only a pair of midrange jump shots by David Lee in the opening minutes of the game. And, for the record, these were not plays that Duhon made. In each case, he was just the guy that happened to give it to Lee.

The Wizards and Knicks were even after one, 22-22. This was not pretty basketball. But it was still a game that could be won and should be won by the home team. Especially if the team wanted to keep its floundering playoff hopes alive. Which is why the final few minutes of the second quarter forced D'Antoni to reconsider his rotation. Duhon re-entered the game, replacing Robinson, with 4:50 to play in the first half. The Knicks had just fallen back by a point, 35-36, after the Wizards ripped off a pair of three pointers for a brief 6-0 spurt. In the ensuing minutes, Duhon turned the ball over twice and missed a pair of shots. The Knicks trailed, 41-45, at intermission.

And, then he was gone. Just like that. Robinson was on the floor. Duhon kept his warmups on. The Knicks scored 30+ in each of the next two quarters. They held Flip Saunders' Wiz to just 20 in each quarter. And they energized the crowd along the way. Now, I know that this is just one midwinter game against a downtrodden Wizards squad missing its two best players - Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler - but this win could define the Knicks season and even their offseason if this change is permanent. By sitting Duhon down and turning the team over to Robinson and Larry Hughes, D'Antoni went away from "his guy" and played the more effective players.

This long overdue move makes both ruthless basketball sense (Duhon is not effective) as well as emotional-psychological sense (the drama with Robinson and Hughes has brought the team down as has Duhon's lack of confidence). Duhon's nosedive is affecting this team on both levels. This Knicks group needs to score easy baskets whenever it can if it is going to compete on a nightly basis. Man cannot survive on jumpshots alone. Yet this team rarely pushes the ball with Duhon on the floor. He is not applying pressure on the opposing defense or regularly going at the rim. For the most part, he hands the ball off to David Lee at the top of the three-point arc shortly after crossing midcourt. At this point Duhon fades over toward a sideline and waits for the ball to swing his way. Lee has seen his assist numbers rise (leads all centers in dimes at 3.5 per game) in part because he bears much of the playmaking responsibility when Duhon is on the floor. We've also noticed Lee's greatly-improved 15 to 20-foot jumper because he's getting the ball so far from the rim. As much as I'm impressed by Lee's addition of the deep jump shot to his repertoire, I'm not ready to say that is the shot he should take most often. But, Lee often has to because this rudderless offense leaves him stranded so far from rim. Again, kudos to Lee for his court vision and his improved shot but this team shouldn't be forcing him to start most possessions 25 feet from the hoop.

Much was made of the Knicks slower tempo in December, and it worked thanks largely to Lee's superlative play and Wilson Chandler's emergence. But another key was the brief uptick in Duhon's shooting. 5 of his 7 games this year with 17+ points came in December. And the presence of a fourth viable scoring threat in the starting unit spread the defense out. This allowed the Knicks to operate successfully at a more methodical pace. But once Duhon's shooting returned to form (he's only averaged more than 9 points per game during one season in his career) this team found itself playing 3 against 5 on offense for much of the game. Shockingly, Jared Jeffries has proven a more dependable fourth option than Duhon. And, don't tell JJI wrote that because I don't need him throwing up any more corner threes for my sake.

Ultimately, Duhon is just not a 30+ minutes per night point guard on a decent team. He's been embarrassingly overexposed by the heavy minutes that he's logged during the past two seasons. Therein lies the key to his recent disastrous run of play. He looks like he's finally embarrassed by all of this. Aside from the first look he gets out of warmups at the start of the game, he is shockingly tentative for a starting veteran guard in the NBA. He rarely goes at defenders and he waits a beat for them to get out on him when he catches the ball on the wing. This guy does not want to shoot. MSG broadcasters Mike Breen and Walt Frazier remark upon this in nearly every telecast. And, since defending was never his strong suit, he is a man without a job on the floor. Lee is the point-center. Jeffries defends opposing point guards and leads the zone. And Danilo Gallinari is the long-distance marksmen. After being benched last night, he told reporters that l, I'm not playing well. I'm not getting it done, so it's [D'Antoni's] job to make this team win. Nate is obviously capable of doing that."

Does that sound like a guy that is fighting to keep his spot? Not to me. After struggling for so long, Duhon is damaged goods. I think that a part of him would be relieved to be out of the starting lineup. Regardless, his malaise is contagious when he's on the floor. Just as Nate's energy and Hughes' confidence are. The fate of the Knicks' season hinges on games like this one. Can they beat the other middling teams? And those games often come down to attitude and execution. Who wants it more? Who tries harder in the second quarter? Which players are actively thinking the game as opposed to just reacting to what happens around them? Benching Duhon helps the Knicks in all of these intangible areas. Getting Robinson and Hughes into games in crucial spots alleviates the dissension on the sideline and in the locker room just as it raises the intensity level on the court. This backroom significance shouldn't be undersold. Teams need to want to win for their teammates and their coach as much as themselves. And having an angry Hughes and a Robinson afraid of demotion does not foster that sort of atmosphere.

Those who know me, know that I've been at the vanguard of the bench Duhon movement so I'll be waiting with baited breath as the team comes out for the opening tip on Friday night at the Garden.