The WWOD? Guide to Running an NCAA Office Pool

Big-time men's college hoops powerhouses - like Kentucky, Duke and Ohio State - that clinched their respective conference titles on Sunday afternoon, have plunged headlong into an incredibly a hectic 96 hours. From finding out where they're scheduled to play this weekend during the Selection Show on Sunday night to scouting their upcoming opponents and traveling to the various first-round tournament sites, there are few people busier than the coaches, equipment managers, athletic directors and players participating in the Big Dance.

The only folks who may have more on their plates this week? Those hale and hearty men and women running an old-fashioned NCAA Tournament pools in offices around the country. Brackets must be printed. Scoring systems divined. Cohorts recruited. Witty emails composed. And fees collected. Running your office pool can be a weeks-long whirlwind of clandestine office work, done with great personal risk of paper cuts and an increased exposure to algebra.

Or you can just start a pool on Yahoo or some such place on the Interwebs and not have to do much of anything but send one email. But before you click to accept their terms, I ask you to consider a better way.

On General Ludd and the Virtues of Handcraft
As the Industrial Revolution was changing the face of English culture at the tail end of the 1700s, one man is reputed to have stood up against the forces of change. One man is supposed to have spoken out in favor of the work done by human hands (albeit slower work that often came at greater expense). This man, Ned Ludd, smashed a pair of mechanical knitting machines that were taking away jobs for him and his buddies.

As the Industrial Revolution (not to be confused with The Puppy That Lost Its Way) gained steam in the 1810s and '20s, a swarm of British textile workers rose up under Ludd's name and smashed looms across the land. The Luddites were revolting across England and tying down British troops that were needed to fend off Napoleon. This brouhaha was such that the breaking of looms became a capital offense. Yeah, that means it was punished with the death penalty. And, no, "breaking the loom" is not a nineteenth century euphemism for sodomy. In 2011, now that we're not so hung up on losing our jobs to looms, "Luddite" is a mildly derogatory term for someone who hasn't waited in a long line for an IPad.

As someone who would love to not have a mobile phone tracking my every movement and making me available to everyone (except my lovely girlfriend who can call any time she wants) at all times, I can respect the Luddite worldview. Which is one of the reasons that I am a huge advocate of running your office pool the old fashioned way: with printed out and filled out paper brackets. Leave this newfangled click-and-drag stuff to the rocket scientists and shut-ins. I say, let's scribble and cross out names on greasy well-worn pieces of paper like the degenerate gamblers we are.

Aside from my own rejection of change and fondness for the gambling days of yore, there are a handful of reasons why it's better (and more fun) to have competitors manually fill out and submit their brackets.

Top Five Reasons For Paper Brackets

1. Pay to Play. Someone hands you a bracket and the fee at the same time. There is zero hassle about collecting money from people who sign up online but you never see in person.

2. My Mac Ate My Bracket. With most offices populated with a mix of tech-savvy youngsters and middle-aged folks who need a child or spouse to get that danged DVD player to work, the use of hand-filled brackets eliminates any cries of "I meant to pick X but the computer gave me Y."

3. Graphology. Now, I don't think that you can necessary learn about a person by the penmanship of their bracket, but I do think that people put more of themselves into a handwritten bracket than one they fill out online. For starters, most online bracket games have players select winners in such a way that the big picture is somewhat obscured. Whereas the breadth and depth of the tournament stares you in the face when you fill out each line of a paper bracket. All of the If... (Team X wins) Then... (They Might Face Team Y) And... (They might meet in this location of significance) Which... (Means that I have a hunch about who will win) Abstractions that make this so fun are much more likely to come into play. People worry over paper brackets while eating lunch, dripping mustard or spilling coffee on them. They cross out earlier picks and doodle in the margins. It's just not the same without them. It's also a lot harder for contestants to (e)mail it in by quickly clicking on team names before the deadline. Long story short, people try harder and care more with paper brackets.

4. Scoring Updates. Not surprisingly, I ran the annual office pool at my previous job. There had never been an office pool there and it grew each year that I was with the company. By the time I had moved on to greener and friendlier pastures, the annual office pool had become something that those who participated really looked forward to each spring. Aside from the inherent thrill of gambling, the emails with the scoring updates were always a fave facet of the tournament. These emails became so popular, in fact, that even a few folks that didn't participate asked to be cc'd on the emails throughout the duration of the tournament. Now, this is the first way in which running an office pool with paper brackets puts more onus on the lifeguard. But we'll worry about that later. In the meantime, emailed updates from the person in charge are integral to a solid pool because they provide a common meeting place for all participants. Rather than logging on to Yahoo separately to see what's happening (or not even checking once things are underway) everyone gets to find out where they stand at the same time. A ripple of excitement shoots through the office when that first notice goes out on the morning of the second day of the tourney. There is a collective experience that bonds everyone together and gets people talking. And, this may be the best (and only) situation for the "reply all" email function. All of a sudden, the Marketing VP is commiserating with the guy in the mail room because they both are at the bottom of the standings. When done right, the scoring updates foster the sort of camaraderie that makes the office pool great (and lucrative).

5. Freedom. Working outside the confines of Yahoo, ESPN, CBS or whichever media conglomerate you favor allows your office pool to use whatever scoring system you choose.

A Note on Invitations: When breaking ground on a new office pool (regardless of whether you're using paper brackets) one should be moderately careful of whom they invite to come for a swim. This sort of gambling is, I believe, still illegal. It's also a renowned time suck that some workplaces may frown upon. Send an initial email out the Monday after Selection Sunday to those intrepid souls that you know for a fact will participate. Ideally, this number will include people in various departments or areas of the office. Ask these players to forward the email to anyone else they think may be interested. In your initial email, it's worthwhile to name drop the most senior person that you know will be participating in a "Well, we all now that Mr. Knudsen is going to go with his alma mater UNC even though they missed the tournament" sort of way. This should put a bit of institutional muscle behind this operation and help grease the wheels. If you get the word out on Monday then you have until noon on Thursday for participants to come out of the wood work. And they will.

Lastly, be sure to attached PDF of a bracket to your invite email and also include a hyperlink that leads to a printable version of the bracket. You want to make it as easy as possible for people to participate. Mostly because you want their money but also because it's more fun that way.

The WWOD? Risk-Rewarding NCCA Office Pool Scoring System
In order to show that my preference for paper brackets isn't just some self-indulgent whim, I've created a scoring system that I think fosters more competitive spirit than the standard scoring employed by most online bracket vendors. The thrice-tested WWOD? scoring system rewards those who correctly pick upsets. Because being right when the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos take out the University of Florida should not be just as valuable as correctly tapping Kansas to get past the Boston University Terriers. That is not what this tournament is all about.

When Taylor Coppenrath and the Vermont Catamounts knocked off Syracuse on TJ Sorrentine's three-pointer in 2005, and I had actually guessed prognosticated that result in the office pool, well, I wanted a statue erected in my honor next to the water cooler. Is that so wrong? I don't think so. And while I haven't set up a quick-turnaround statue company, I have composed this upset-emphasizing scoring system. There are two main components of this paten-pending method.

1. The WWOD? Upset Bonus
When an upset occurs and a bracketeer has correctly filled it out on their bracket then they get the difference of the team's seeds added to their score as an UPSET BONUS. So if the No. 15 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos really do knock of the No. 2 seeded Florida Gators and you were to correctly guess that then you would receive 13 bonus points added to your score.

2. The Fibonacci Normalizer
With such extravagant bonuses for picking first-round upsets, you might ask, "Well doesn't this mean that everyone will just pick every upset hoping to rack up bonus points?" And, it might if I hadn't already thought about that and created a scoring system that makes correct picks increasingly valuable as we get deeper into the tournament. In other words, if you go against all the high seeds early to accrue bonus points then you'll be hosed as the tournament advances.

I scoured the world of mathematics (read: googled "math" and "counting") when trying to find out a way to raise the scores incrementally by round. Finally I tracked down a certain Leonardo of Pisa, who brought us the bestselling Liber Abaci. The son of a successful Italian merchant, this guy learned about counting and numbers from the brightest minds of the Arab world and convinced Europeans to give up Roman numerals for the much easier to compute 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. The adoption of the Hindu-Arabic numerals by the West was really a game-changer in world history. Sort of like the addition of the three-point line.

For his troubles, Leonardo of Pisa later had a number sequence named in his honor. Even though his name was Leo, this number sequence was called the Fibonacci Sequence. It is a string of numbers in which any number after the first two, which are 0 and 1, is the sum of the previous two numbers.

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ...

One of the special things about the Fibonacci numbers is that they occur in nature, such as in the branching of trees, the arrangements of leaves on a stem and a bunch of other stuff. And, if something is good enough for Mother Nature then it's surely good enough for our office pool.

Points Values By Round:
Round 1: 2 points for each correct pick
Round 2: 3 points for each correct pick
Sweet 16: 5 points for each correct pick
Elite 8: 8 points for each correct pick
Final Four: 13 points for each correct pick
Championship Game: 21 points

Scoring Example:
Again, if those No. 15 UCSB Gauchos really do knock off No. 2 Florida then anyone who picks that game correctly gets 2 points because it's a first-round game + 13 points for the Upset Bonus. That's 15 points for that one game.

Each game is tabulated thusly. Games in which the higher seed prevails just get the appropriate round value. This applies to every game in every round. So if a No. 3 seed edges a No. 1 seed in the championship game then anyone who correctly picked that winner receives the 21 points for the round + the 2 points for the difference in seeds.

For all the attention paid to upsets in this system, most bonus-based leads evaporate in the Sweet 16. And that 21-point score for nailing the champ is hard to beat. Just like with most scoring systems, the winning brackets will need to have their Final Four largely intact and tend to have the correct champ. The true difference with the WWOD? scoring system is that those who sniffed out the right Cinderellas will get a slight boost over those who went chalk in a year when a common pick cuts down the nets. It's very hard to win this sort of pool if you don't get at least one of the few big upsets correctly.

The Stakes
This is totally dependent on where you work. If you're the sommelier in the employee lunchroom at Monocles and Scepters Incorporated then maybe you can go as high as $100 per bracket. But I've always gone between $10 and $20 per bracket. Ideally, no one will be intimidated by price and a handful of people will play multiple brackets.

The Lifeguard at the Office Pool
And, here's the part you didn't want to hear. Running an office pool this way, the right way, requires someone to do a lot of work. You've got to compose clever emails that include references to the tournament itself as well as the various folks in your office. You've got resist the temptation to spend the big wad of money at a bar during the first weekend of the tournament. And the second. You've got to do math. And then check your math. And then re-check it because Lynda in Accounting thinks you might have her score wrong. You've got to carry around an Inter-office envelope with all the brackets stuffed inside and not lose that envelope. Or change any of the brackets in that envelope. And you've got to deal with everyone waiting on scoring updates after each round of games. Because they will.

So, yeah, it will take up a lot of your time.

But, that's also part of the fun. You can distract yourself from a month of your actual job. It's also a great way to meet people in your workplace and get people to see you in a slightly different light. And, yes, that light may be tinted by gambling but it will also illuminate your leadership skills and ability to complete a complex project. Oh, and it will keep you from working. Did I mention that?

Now, in the name of Ludd and Fibonacci and Coopenrath go out there and start some workplace gambling!

Tea-Time Tipoffs

West Region
No. 13 Murray State Racers (30-4, OVC)
vs.
No. 4 Vanderbilt Commodores (24-8, SEC)
2:30 P.M EST
HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA

With three games under our belts, we've got our first advertised bracketbuster of the day. The 13th-seeded Racers are one of the handful of the teams that have already been fitted for a pair of glass high tops. And Vandy is a major conference middler that nobody believes in. This one's got all the makings of an upset and no lesser authority than President Obama has tapped Murray State to advance.

According to some formula crafted by the stats folks at the Worldwide Leader, Murray State has a "Giant Killer" rating of 94.5%. That seems like it's probably a good thing even though I'm not really sure what it means. I do understand, on the other hand, that coming up with the ball after 39.5% of their missed shots is a big deal. Murray State does that, even though I didn't know that we had a state named "Murray." Was it annexed like Puerto Rico? Is it a protectorate like Guam?

While a lot of smart folks take point differential heavily into consideration when deciding which teams are actually good and which have just won a bunch of games, I really dig offensive rebounds. They can suck the life out of a team and sap the clock like few things can.

On the other hand, the only thing I like about Vanderbilt is that they play home games at Memorial Coliseum. The court is essentially on a stage in this multi-purpose arena that was built during the 1950s. It always struck me as an awesome venue and one that really suited Nashville (where the school is located). Both teams from the South are far from home, playing California. This truly neutral-court game should favor Murray State since impartial fans gravitate toward the underdog.

Frankly, there's so much hype for the Racers that part of me wants to run the other way. I want to say that for all its weaknesses, Vandy has played a far tougher schedule and has better atheltes. And that they're better prepared physically and emotionally for this game. But I'm going to pencil Murray State into my bracket against that instinct. And this is a strategic play. Even if they win this game, I don't see Vandy sticking around past this weekend. So, I'm going to take a calculated risk by keeping alive a potential Cinderella.

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: Murray State
SI's Seth Davis: Vanderbilt
President Obama: Murray State
WWOD?: Murray State (for bracket purposes but I'm not putting any money on them)

South Region
No. 14 Sam Houston State Bearkats (25-7, Southland)
vs.
No. 3 Baylor Bears (25-7, Big 12)
2:52 P.M. EST
New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA

Stephen Colbert is likely staying away from this one. Bears vs. Bearkats? Who ya got?

Usually when picking tournament games, I tend to overlook the actual records of the teams in question. This helps when a 30-win Memphis team is going out early but in general it is not wise. But I do it all the time in search of some Rosetta Stone stat (like offensive rebounds or point differential) that is going to unlock the secrets of the game. I repeat: This is not wise. In this case, I'm going to pay attention to regular-season wins and regular-season losses.

Both of these ballclubs are 25-7. Baylor achieved that record playing in the Big 12 alongside Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas. Those teams are all playing in the Big Dance. The Bears beat Texas three times, the importance of which can't be overstated for a team that hails from Waco, TX. They split with Texas A&M and beat Missouri when those two tangled. On the flip side, Baylor went 0-2 against the two Kansas powerhouses (lost by a combined 8 points) during the regular season and were dumped out of the Big 12 Tournament by K-State. On the whole, they had a very impressive season before we even examine how they did what they did.

The "Bearkats" don't boast nearly the same resume. The Southland Conference sent one other teams to the dance. That team is the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. Not exactly a world beater. In an unrelated note, I can't shake the fact that I think of Yosemite Same whenever I see the words "Sam Houston State." I'm not exactly sure why, but ... I just ... it just happened again.

This being two Texas teams, I'm guessing/hoping that there is some simmering animosity about whom played high school ball against whom and which schools did or did not recruit so-and-so. There are few things that can even up a matchup like a simmering grudge. SHS has three players that average double digits in points per game. So these guys can fill it up and can't be stopped by one lockdown defender. They've thrown up 90 or more points on 11 occasions this season. That's gosh darn impressive, Yosemite Sam might say. Being able to score 100 points is a mighty fine ability for a team looking to pull an upset if you ask me.

If they weren't facing, the Baylor Bears - the "underdog" favorite of this tournament - then I might be inclined to advance them. But I can't. Not just because Baylor has competed against very good teams all year long. But also because one of the top three players on the team is named Tweety Carter. And he is one of three Baylor upperclassmen to average in double figures. In the age of Twitter, how can you not expect the player named Tweety to break out as one of the darlings of this tournament?

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: Baylor
SI's Seth Davis Baylor
President Obama: Baylor
WWOD?: Baylor

West Region
No. 15 North Texas Mean Green (24-8, Sun Belt)
vs.
No. 2 Kansas State Wildcats (26-7, Big 12)
2:40 P.M. EST
Ford Center, Oklahoma City, OK

To be honest, I hadn't paid much attention to Kansas State until Michael Beasley arrived on campus a few years ago. Before that I knew that the school was based in Manhattan, Kansas. And, I inferred that the University of Kansas was their natural rival. But that's really it.

By watching Beastly two years ago I did learn that coach Frank Martin is a live wire. That dude can yell and gesticulate and freak out with the best of them. Alas, when the Beastley and company meakly bowed out of the tournament in 2008, I mostly stopped thinking about the Wildcats. At least, until the Knicks acquired Bill Walker as part of the Nate Robinson trade. Walker was one of Beasley running mates. He can't shoot particularly well, but the kid is a phenomenal athlete with a nose for the hoop. He's paced the Knicks in scoring on several nights since joining the club. And, yes, I do understand that isn't a major feat. But, Walker has made me realize that Beasley wasn't the lone gifted athlete to come through the Midwest's Manhattan. To continue to be honest about my ignorance, I didn't realize they were getting these sorts of players on campus. This may be old news to someone who actually follows a lot of college basketball but to this guy who mostly sees Big East and ACC hoops, that was news.

The knock on Martin's squad is they dropped all their games against Kansas. This would seem to indicate that they're a notch below the best teams in the country. And, I wouldn't quibble with that. But I would say that they are still very capable of making a deep run.

As far as the Mean Green as concerned, I Iove the nickname. It's the best of the tournament so far. But, I will never ever pick a team that surrendered one of Florida International Atlantic's seven wins. They lost to an Isiah Thomas-coached team. Kansas State advances. And covers.

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: Kansas State
SI's Seth Davis: Kansas State
President Obama: Kansas State
WWOD?: Kansas State

South Region
No. 11 St Mary's Gaels (26-5, WCC)
vs.
No. 7 Richmond Spiders (26-8, A10)

Before the finals of the WCC Conference Tournament, Bang the Book (a gambling website) wrote "Poor St. Mary’s is going to be thrown to the wolves once again in this game."

This seemed to be the prevailing attitude before that game. But the Gaels stepped up and rolled favored Gonzaga, nailing 10 of 21 three-point attempts and running away with the game in the second half. One of the many biases that (mis)guide me as I fill out my many tournament brackets is an aversion to mid-major teams that needed a miracle just to be invited. Now, I'm not saying that St. Mary's misses out if they lose that game. They would still have had 25 wins in a respected midmajor conference. And some would say that St. Mary's is the new Gonzaga. But I'm not so sure. I also never saw them play once this year. Which is obviously a huge factor in these games.

I did manage to catch the latter stages of Richmond's OT win over Xavier in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament, though, and I came away very impressed by junior guard Kevin Anderson. The diminutive yet powerful ball handler wouldn't surrender and his team mirrored his intensity. Anderson dropped 27 points on the Musketeers after averaging more than 17 per game for the season. Richmond would go on to fall in the A10 Final to Temple, but I don't hold it against them. The Owls are no scraps and were looking for payback after being routed by the Spiders during the regular season.

Forgetting my crush on Anderson, Omar Samhan of St. Mary's is the best player in this game. He's 6 foot 11 and goes for 20 and 11 per night. Which would lead one to think that Gaels will be able to go inside if they're not knocking down shots like they were in their previous game.

In Richmond's favor, they did play a better conference schedule, with wins over Xavier, Temple and Rhode Island. They also have non-conference triumphs over Missouri, Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Florida.

Lastly, Spiders are scarier than wind. Even gael-force wind.

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: Richmond
SI's Seth Davis: St. Mary's
President Obama: St. Mary's
WWOD?: Richmond (barely and I'm not putting any money on it)

West Region
No. 12 University of Texas, El Paso Miners (26-6 C-USA)
vs.
No. 4 Butler Bulldogs (28-4, Horizon)
4:45 P.M. EST
HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: UTEP
SI's Seth Davis: Butler
President Obama: Butler
WWOD?: UTEP (I'd take the 2.5 or 3 points here since I see this going down to the wire).

NCAA 2010: Mid-Day Madness

The Noon-ish Games of Day 1

Alright, let's put some lipstick on this pig, lace up our dancing shoes, and get ready for a big weekend.

With the 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament set to tip off, your brackets should be turned into your neighborhood bracketmaster and/or your trusted online sports company. Hopefully you've managed to cross the T's and dot the lower case j's of your daily workload and can coast until quitting time. If so, there is live footage of the games being simulcast over at CBS Sports.com.

We've got a manageable three midday games to keep tabs on from our cubicles, officles, work stations, and assorted places of business. Without further ado, here is everything you need to know to act like you know something about these games.

West Region
No. 10 Florida Gators (21-12, SEC)
vs.
No. 7 Brigham Young Cougars (29-5, Mountain West)
12:20 P.M. EST
Oklahoma City, OK

BYU played in the first set of games in last year's tournament as well. They were matched up with Texas A&M (just as they were in the first round of the 2008 tournament). When previewing that game, I wrote:

"I can't pick a team whose out-of-bounds plays may have been revealed on a set of golden plates that was dug up somewhere in New York state during the nineteenth century. And, I'm not saying that isn't a perfectly reasonable way to uncover information. I'm just saying that the game has evolved so much."

And my snarky anti-Mormon cracks (although I'm going to guess that the hoops team isn't quite as Mormon as the rest of the student population) were rewarded as the Aggies defeated the Cougars. Just like they had the year before.

This year, however, I'm leaning towards the boys from Povo, Utah. BYU's Jimmer Fredette is the best player in this game. The junior guard from upstate New York dropped 49 on Arizona this year and 45 on TCU. He's played heavy minutes since his freshman year and can shoot free throws if it gets close. And the rest of his squad isn't too shabby either. They may end up with more wives than years of pro ball when all is said (although Freddette will get a long look from scouts and probably will get a shot at the next level) and done but this is a solid team. They play hard. They play smart. And they excel at both ends of the floor.

Ken Pomeroy's predictive rating system (which you should have been using when filling out your bracket) has BYU as the No. 8 team in the country heading into today's games. Ken Pom has Florida ranked as the 49th best team in the land. Billy Donovan is trading on past success and his current squad doesn't seem to have the profile to match up against a potentially underseeded BYU team. The Gators played soft non-conference schedule and the only wins over tourney teams came early on against intra-state rival Florida State and then later in the year against the erratic Tenneseee Volunteers. Could Donovan amp these kids up enough for an upset? I guess he could. It's also worth noting (while still being largely irrelevant) that Florida is riding a 12-game tourney win streak that goes back to its two national title runs a few years back. It they manage to survive and advance then they would tie Duke's early '90s streak.

But after first-round exits in the last two years, BYU's star is mature and this group is primed for its run. This is the year for this group and they seem to realize it. On the other hand, this tournament berth seems a reward in itself for the Gators. Salt Lake Tribune columnist Gordon Monson went as far as to write that "If BYU doesn't beat a fringe Florida team, a team that probably had no business getting into the tournament, a team that was issued a favor by the selection committee because Billy Donovan finally got a little something for the effort from a few seasons back after being left out the past two seasons, the Cougars will never again win a tournament game."

Now. I don't know if I'd go as far as Monson, but I am willing to lay the five points that BYU is giving to Florida and take the Cougars to advance.

ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi: BYU
ESPN.com's Game Simulator: BYU wins 71% of the time
SI's Seth Davis: BYU
President Obama: BYU (although he'd written in Florida first on his bracket)
WWOD?: BYU (betting money line and probably laying points as long as they don't give more than 6).

South Region
No. 11 Old Dominion Monarchs (26-8, CAA)
vs.
No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (23-11, Big East)
12:25 P.M. EST
New Orleans Arena

Last Wednesday night, I sat in a very good seat at Madison Square Garden to watch a pair of games in the Big East tournament. Up first on the docket was a matchup between Seton Hall and Notre Dame. Hall had edged the Irish earlier in the year and ND was cruising towards an NIT berth. But they won that game and then knocked off Pittsburgh the following evening. And now they're a No. 6 seed with a huge national following that is penciling them into the Sweet 16. Seton Hall, on the other hand, has since fired its coach and seen a player arrested for charges that include kidnapping more than five folks. So, that happened.

Much has been made about the way in which the Irish hit its stride late in the season sans Luke Harangody. Without its leading scorer, the team became more methodical, limiting possessions and wearing teams down with their motion offense. Sadly for those in South Bend, this is precisely the style that a 26-win ODU team wants to play. They play lockdown defense inside and out. They rebound on both ends of the floor, especially at the offensive end. This is how they knocked off Georgetown, a team that also employs a slower half-court style, earlier this year.

The KenPom rankings give the slight edge to ODU (ranked 33rd while ND is at 40) but ESPN's game simulator gives the slight edge to Notre Dame. There is an argument floating around out there that ND is the "hot" team in this matchup but I don't entirely agree. OD has won 17 of its last 20 and five straight. They won the regular season and conference tournament titles in Colonial Athletic Conference. Aside from a three-game swoon in November, they have been on fire all year long.

But they have a glaring weakness: they can't shoot. Not from the free-throw line. Not from beyond the arc.

Therefore, I think the most pivotal person in this game is ND coach Mike Brey. Does he revert back to his up-tempo style and play Harangody heavy minutes or does he keep the ball in the hands of point guard Tony Jackson and try to edge ODU in slow-down slugfest? If I were Brey, I would at least attempt to speed up the tempo at some point because ODU is notoriously bad from the three-point line. If ND can make this a shootout then I don't think that the Monarchs can keep up. They don't have a stud scorer (leading scorer Gerald Lee averages less than 15 per game) and could be forced to abandon their preferred style (which I think they are better at than ND).

ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi: Old Dominion
ESPN.com's Game Simulator: ND wins 53% of the time
SI’s Seth Davis: Notre Dame
President Obama: Notre Dame
WWOD?: Old Dominion (and I'm taking ODU to cover in a close game)

South Region
No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials
vs.
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
12:30 P.M. EST
Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI

I have nothing insightful to say about this game. Along with everyone else, I expect Nova to roll over Robert Morris. Wildcats senior guard Scottie Reynolds is one of those players who I feel like I've watched for 10 years. He's played about 30 minutes per game in each of his four seasons and he's not going down in round one.

There are only two things worth discussing about this game. First, can Villanova cover the 16.5-point spread? And, secondly, who is this Robert Morris character?

To address the first question, I think that Nova can cover the spread playing in Providence in front of a lot of their fans. They had a scare in the first round last year against American and I'm willing to wager, literally, that they've learned from their mistake.

And as far as this Morris character is concerned. Mr. Robert Morris was a financier and signer of the Declaration of Independence. He was a member of the second Continentla Congress and paid some of General George Washington's troops out of his own pocket just before a series of key battles in New Jersey. Paying the troops, I would imagine, is a crucial but oft-overlooked aspect of the Revolutionary War. Morris is also the man who brought us decimal coinage. Without him, there may have been no penny loafers. Which is why the Brooks Brothers money is leaning heavily towards Robert Morris to cover.

EVERYONE: Villanova

2nd Annual WWOD? Super Bowl Prop Bet Blowout

After weeks of preseason quasi-football - which was preceded by months of he-said, he-said featuring everyone's favorite denim pitchman - and seventeen weeks of regular season contests - which preceded three rounds of playoff tilts- we are here. It's Super Sunday, which precedes Hungover Monday.

Three parts television spectacle, one part hot sauce bender, three parts fete for Madison Avenue ad men, two parts football game, and one part occassion for drunk driving. Combine in chilled punch bowl. Ad dash of gambling to taste. Whisk. Serve over ice in commemorative plastic cups obtained with four Tostitos proofs purchase and a self-addressed stamped envelope. It's the Super Bowl. Where do I sit?

Excuse me, miss, is there any room in the Falcons helmet?

After knocking of Rex Ryan's ambitious New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game with a ruthlessly efficient second-half performance, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are deemed the safe bet in this game. Peyton's been garnering GOAT talk all week long, deservedly. And, how do you bet against the best? Indy hasn't lost a game that Peyton played straight through all year long. Perhaps the recency bias of the gambling public explains why the Colts were favored by 6 shortly after they were installed as 3.5-point favorites by the Vegas oddsmakers over the NFC representative. The Indy money came in quick. The line has since regressed as the Saints backers felt that +5 or 6 points was a good value. Just a few hours before kickoff, the Colts are laying 4.5 to the Saints.

Perhaps the reason that the Colts got so much love early in the week was Peyton's T1000-like dominance against the Jets. Or it might have been the New Orleans Saints' struggles against the turnover-prone Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Despite their own dominant season and an undefeated run of their own, the Saints are firmly entrenched in the underdog role, perhaps in spite of the numbers they put up this season. Perhaps it's also because that status fits the narrative of post-Katrina New Orleans. Perhaps it's just because they're not as good.

Regardless of the movement, I think that the oddsmakers set a good line. It's got me confused. Which is how I judge such things. If I can't figure it out then it must be good. Right?

In the last two years, I have loved the Cardinals and the Giants with the points. This year? I'm not sure. I can't imagine a team stopping Peyton for four quarters. But, I'm not sold that the Colts' defense can keep Drew Brees and company from making this a shootout. I might tease the Colts and the UNDER in case the game goes like former Colts coach and current NBC analyst Tony Dungy thinks it will. I might also put a little bit of cash down on the Saints and the money line. Or tease the Saints +4.5 and the OVER and bet the Colts money line. Or I might just take my money and award it to passersby as I make my way to the Super Bowl party I'm heading to. I'm not sure. All seem equally viable options.

WWOD?'s Prop Bet Picks:

Austin Collie OVER 50.5 yards
I think that this might be my best feel (you could also translate this logic to the OVER on Garcon if you want, too) of the game. Saints corner Jabari Greer is a middle-class man's Darrelle Revis and should be able to take Reggie Wayne away from Manning just like Revis did. I'd go OVER on Collie's receptions as well. That line is set at an easy to top 3.5.

Reggue Wayne for UNDER 79.5 total recieving yards
Betting public, meet Mr. Greer. Mr. Greer, meet the betting public. I'd also take most of the UNDER bets on Wayne with the exception of longest reception. There's always the chance that he'll break one and I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket even though I think he gets shut down over the balance of the game.

Total number of players to have a pass attempt: OVER.
I've had good luck with this bet whenever I've made. And, Iike most streaks. It's got to end somewhere. But I think that the Saints offensive mastermind Sean Payton might see make sure that day isn't today. Does Reggie Bush throw a pass today? I think there's a chance.

The Saints WILL CONVERT A FOURTH DOWN ATTEMPT:
If they're going to be trailing, which seems to be the conventional wisdom then they will go for it on fourth at some point as they try to rally and they will convert.

Carrie Underwood will go OVER 1 minute and 42 seconds while singing the national anthem:
This gal wants to show of those pipes to prove that she's more than a genre act.

Drew Brees' longest completion will be OVER 40.5 yards:
The Saints are going to be looking for big plays and they'll connect on one at some point. I'm actually surprised this 10 yards less than the longest completion of game prop, which is around 50 yards. I mean, the Saints are the home run offense whereas the Colts really want to grind your bones and make their bread with long drives.

Other than these bets, I do really like the OVER on the longest rush props for Pierre Thomas, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. All the numbers are around 10-11 yards. All someone has to do is run for a first down and you're a winner.

Watch That Line

Just like last week, the late action seems to on the Jet's opponent. Yesterday the Colts were favored by 7 points. Then 7.5 points And now 8.5 points. Once this line gets up to Jets +9 then it's time to start wagering on the underdog J-E-T-S.

WWOD's Conference Champion Game Wagers
-When the lines first came out and the Jets were only getting 7.5 points, I teased the Colts down to -1.5 and the OVER down to 34. This was an emotional hedge that would give me a silver lining for a Colts win. And, I've got a feeling that if the Colts win that they're going to put up more than 20 points (although the Jets' foes have averaged close to 14 this season).

-As far as props, I'm looking at shortest field goal UNDER 26.5 yards, considering how good the Jets' defense has been playing how likely their offense is to be unable to punch it in at some point. I'm also at the Special Teams or Defensive Score bet that's coming off at +150 (meaning you win $150 for betting $100). The OVER on Austin Collie receiving yards at 50.5 might see a few bucks from me since I can only assume that Peyton Manning is not going to force any balls to his No. 1 option, who should be wearing Darrelle Revis around like a mink snuggie throughout the game.

-With the Jets' line moving and a likely shootout I'm thinking about teasing the Jets up to 15 (assuming that line gets up to +9) and the Vikings-Saints OVER down to 48.

-The Vikings are now getting just +3.5, which means the public money has been lining the denim pockets of the Gunslinger. In a game that essentially seems a pick 'em to me I might be tempted to just take the points. But probably not.

The Fantasy League Suicide Pool

(This idea appeared in this space before the start of last season and I'm breaking it out again because I think it can make the world a better place. I've already got one of my multiple fantasy leagues giving this a go this season.)

There are moments in a man's life, or at least so we all hope, when a truth so bright and crystalline enters your mind with such force that you can hardly wait to share it with the world. Einstein had his theory of relativity. Draco had his concept of law and punishment. Mary Ellis-Bunim and Jonathan Murry had The Real World. Moments ago I had my own eureka moment. I invented (at least I think I did, although it's very possible someone else beat me to it) the Fantasy League Suicide Pool.

The concept is simple. Just like most brilliant inventions. Like the paper clip. Or the grenade. Once you and your cohorts have held your fantasy football draft you then take your competition to the next level. You gamble on your gambling. You combine the two most social non-substance (and, yes, chicken wings are a substance) abuses associated with the NFL. You combine fantasy football with the suicide pool. Which, like peanut butter and chocolate, taste great together.

Each member of your fantasy league chooses a single fantasy team from the league each week to win its head-to-head matchup, just the same way standard suicide pools ask entrants to choose an NFL team each week that will win its game. Everyone in the fantasy league throws in another agreed upon amount of money on top of, but separate from, the initial fee that everyone paid to enter. You stay alive in the Fantasy League Suicide Pool as long as your fantasy-team picks continue to win. The monies are paid to the fellow (or lady) who stays alive the longest.

Not only does this strengthen the bond between fantasy leaguers and their league but it also gives them a reason to get to know their opponents teams as well. This is ideal for the person who can't give away cash fast enough this time of year and who needs just one more stimulant as they watch Kurt Warner and P.T. Barnum O'Sullivan battle it out late on a Sunday afternoon.

Now, go. Go out and spread the gospel of the Fantasy League Suicide Pool. Every non-anonymous, non-public fantasy football league out there (in other words, the real ones) can have this up and running by the start of Week 2. Which is plenty of time considering that there are necessarily fewer teams in most fantasy leagues than there are in the National Football League.

This numbers difference brings us to the sole way in which the Fantasy Football Suicide Pool could divert from the Real Football Suicide Pool that we all know and love. Since there are 10 or 12 teams in most fantasy football leagues you either have to allow for the possibility to select a team twice (but only after you've gone through the entire league once already), award each entrant a bye week (or two) that can be used at their own discretion during the season to avoid picking a team twice, or you calculate the relevant numbers (how many teams in your fantasy league and how many weeks of playoffs in your league) to arrange it so that there are no byes or duplicate picks needed.

For example, if you have a 12-team fantasy football league and that league holds playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16 then you could start your Fantasy League Suicide Pool in Week 3 and nobody would have to use a team more than once to reach the end of your fantasy-football regular season. Got it? Good. Of course, the odds are that all this number crunching will not be needed as more than one person probably won't still be alive in the pool come Week 13.

Now, if someone has already thought of this then good for them. I'm jealous that they've been doing this for years and I'm a little annoyed that they didn't tell the rest of us. If you are one of those early adapters out there who had already heard of something like this then please do drop a line and let us all know if there are any unforeseen pitfalls to this seemingly wonderful concept.

In the meantime, enjoy. You're welcome.

A Brief History of the Point Spread

And WWOD?'s NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Yeah, there is fantasy football. And the Suicide Pool. There is even the newfangled Fantasy League Suicide Pool. But when you're going to talk about football-related wagering you've got to follow the words of Vizini. You've got to "go back to the beginning." Or at least back to the most important thing. And, that means wagering against the point spread.

Right up through the early 1940s, however, there was no point spread in American gambling. There were odds. That's it. You could get 5-to-1 odds that the Cubs were going to beat the Yankees in the 1932 World Series (I made up those odds but you get it) but that was as sophisticated as things got. In other words, you could only bet on the final win/lost result of a game or a series of games (like the World Series). When making such wagers it didn't make a difference if a game was decided by one point or by a 100 points. If you picked the winner then you won and if you backed the loser then you lost.

That is until a history student from the University of Chicago came along and changed everything. After earning his Master's Degree from the prestigious Midwestern institution of higher learning, Charles K. McNeill went on to teach math at the Riverdale County School in Connecticut. He briefly taught John F. Kennedy in this capacity. McNeil would also hold down a day job as a securities analyst before turning his time and his mind toward gambling. Supposedly, McNeil was raking the cash in on the straight winner/loser wagers at such a brisk clip that no established book makers would take a bet from him. So, like any industrious compulsive gambler he started his own gambling interest and totally revolutionized the sporting life in the process. He pioneered the point spread and nothing would ever be the same.

The point spread, of course, is the estimated difference (the estimating is done in Vegas) between the scores of the two teams competing in a particular football game. For example, the New York Bretts are favored over the Miami Penningphins by 3 points. The "point spread" is 3 points. Knowing this information a prospective sport has the choice of either betting on the Jets to win by MORE than three or betting on the Dolphins to lose by LESS than three, or to win the game outright. If you were to bet on the underdog Dolphins and "take the points" then you would win your wager provided the the Dolphins' point total at the end of the game plus three points is greater than whatever the Jets manage to put up on the score board. Got it? Good. Oh, and if the Jets were to win by exactly three points (which mean the folks in Vegas did a darn good job) then everyone keeps there money. It's called a "push" and no cash changes hands.

Without further adieu, the WWOD? Week 1 Picks:
1. Arizona (-2.5) over San Francisco
If I were a serious enough gambler to have a system then such a system would probably have a rule that prohibited betting on any team quarterbacked by Kurt Warner. But, since I don't have a system I'm taking Warner and his stud receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to beat the Niners and the newbie P.T. Barnum O'Sullivan by a touchdown or more.

2. Cincinnati (-2) over Baltimore.
Starting at QB for the Baltimore Ravens is Joe Flacco, who has started just two seasons at the University of Delaware. His big college wins came against the Northern Iowa Panthers and the Southern Illinois Salukis. And those were upset wins. Say what you will about Sincinnati but they are not ECAC teams. I'm committed to betting against Flacco until he proves that a bad idea. Or, at least, until the point spread reaches a touchdown.
NOTE: By this same logic I should be betting against Matt Ryan and the Falcons until they prove they can beat a team or a spread. However, I can't bring myself to bet against Matty Ice.

3. Jacksonville (-3) over Tennessee
Jacksonville looked legit last year in almost knocking of the Patriots in the playoffs. I would think there season-ending loss has them hungry for more and ready to start this season quick. On the other hand, I think the Titans were likely satisfied with just having reached the playoffs last season and could have been a mbit more complacent over the offseason. Moreover, I think David Gerrard and Vince Young are going in opposite directions. The Jacksonville signal-caller was third in the league last year in QB rating with an 18/3 TD/INT split while Young was 26th in QB rating with a 9/17 ratio.

4. New York Jetropolitans (-3) over Miami Penningphins
Although I'm absolutely terrified of Chad Pennington this morning I have to play the unemotional numbers here. If things go to form the Favred-Up Jets should be able to stay ahead by more than a field goal against the team that went 1-15 last season. Right?

Bonus Prop Bet of the Week:
Jerricho Cotchery Receptions OVER 5.5
Although I do think that most prop bets are just ways of handing over money to your bookmaker I do also think that if you take a good look at the weekly props you can find one that is worth a fiver. This week's pick is Cotchery making at least 6 receptions in his first game with Brett Favre.

We'll see how these picks turn out and if I win more than I lose then this will become a weekly feature for the duration of the NFL season.

The Fantasy League Suicide Pool

There are moments in a man's life, or at least so we all hope, when a truth so bright and crystalline enters your mind with such force that you can hardly wait to share it with the world. Einstein had his theory of relativity. Draco had his concept of law and punishment. Mary Ellis-Bunim and Jonathan Murry had The Real World. Moments ago I had my own eureka moment. I invented (at least I think I did, although it's very possible someone else beat me to it) the Fantasy League Suicide Pool.

The concept is simple. Just like most brilliant inventions. Like the paper clip. Or the grenade. Once you and your cohorts have held your fantasy football draft you then take your competition to the next level. You gamble on your gambling. You combine the two most social non-substance (and, yes, chicken wings are a substance) abuses associated with the NFL. You combine fantasy football with the suicide pool. Which, like peanut butter and chocolate, taste great together.

Each member of your fantasy league chooses a single fantasy team from the league each week to win its head-to-head matchup, just the same way standard suicide pools ask entrants to choose an NFL team each week that will win its game. Everyone in the fantasy league throws in another agreed upon amount of money on top of, but separate from, the initial fee that everyone paid to enter. You stay alive in the Fantasy League Suicide Pool as long as your fantasy-team picks continue to win. The monies are paid to the fellow (or lady) who stays alive the longest.

Not only does this strengthen the bond between fantasy leaguers and their league but it also gives them a reason to get to know their opponents teams as well. This is ideal for the person who can't give away cash fast enough this time of year and who needs just one more stimulant as they watch Kurt Warner and P.T. Barnum O'Sullivan battle it out late on a Sunday afternoon.

Now, go. Go out and spread the gospel of the Fantasy League Suicide Pool. Every non-anonymous, non-public fantasy football league out there (in other words, the real ones) can have this up and running by the start of Week 2. Which is plenty of time considering that there are necessarily fewer teams in most fantasy leagues than there are in the National Football League.

This numbers difference brings us to the sole way in which the Fantasy Football Suicide Pool could divert from the Real Football Suicide Pool that we all know and love. Since there are 10 or 12 teams in most fantasy football leagues you either have to allow for the possibility to select a team twice (but only after you've gone through the entire league once already), award each entrant a bye week (or two) that can be used at their own discretion during the season to avoid picking a team twice, or you calculate the relevant numbers (how many teams in your fantasy league and how many weeks of playoffs in your league) to arrange it so that there are no byes or duplicate picks needed.

For example, if you have a 12-team fantasy football league and that league holds playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16 then you could start your Fantasy League Suicide Pool in Week 3 and nobody would have to use a team more than once to reach the end of your fantasy-football regular season. Got it? Good. Of course, the odds are that all this number crunching will not be needed as more than one person probably won't still be alive in the pool come Week 13.

Now, if someone has already thought of this then good for them. I'm jealous that they've been doing this for years and I'm a little annoyed that they didn't tell the rest of us. If you are one of those early adapters out there who had already heard of something like this then please do drop a line and let us all know if there are any unforeseen pitfalls to this seemingly wonderful concept.

In the meantime, enjoy. You're welcome.